* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALMA EP011990 05/14/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 46 52 60 71 77 78 76 68 55 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 46 52 60 71 77 78 76 68 55 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 38 41 46 49 52 56 59 61 57 49 V (KT) G07R 22 20 21 22 22 23 24 32 35 37 38 36 34 SHEAR (KT) 7 9 10 5 8 5 2 8 9 15 15 25 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -2 0 -1 0 -3 3 0 4 3 3 9 SHEAR DIR 348 358 346 319 302 328 199 82 47 79 80 85 79 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.1 27.7 27.4 26.4 24.9 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 164 161 160 159 154 147 141 138 128 113 101 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.5 -51.9 -52.6 -52.0 -52.7 -52.5 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 13 12 13 12 12 10 9 8 7 4 3 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 62 60 58 62 61 62 61 59 58 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 12 14 17 19 20 20 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 16 10 16 19 18 10 5 -2 -8 -10 -11 -17 -15 200 MB DIV 150 142 138 135 135 114 86 64 72 63 12 41 46 LAND (KM) 757 823 908 977 1043 1220 1397 1488 1578 1653 1664 1694 1691 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 10.9 10.7 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.7 11.3 12.2 12.8 14.0 15.3 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 103.7 105.0 106.6 107.9 109.2 112.1 114.4 117.0 119.8 121.6 123.3 125.0 126.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 13 13 15 10 15 10 10 10 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 23. 29. 32. 34. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -2. 0. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. 3. 7. 10. 11. 12. 9. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 22. 30. 41. 47. 48. 46. 38. 25.