* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALMA EP011990 05/15/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 72 77 79 79 71 57 41 29 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 67 72 77 79 79 71 57 41 29 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 69 75 79 81 80 73 63 52 43 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 26 27 30 30 29 32 29 27 26 24 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 5 12 11 7 9 16 24 31 30 40 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 3 7 6 13 10 11 5 -1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 304 329 358 26 29 41 46 68 98 94 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.6 28.2 27.5 27.1 26.6 25.2 24.3 24.1 24.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 148 141 137 132 117 107 105 112 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -53.1 -53.1 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 8 8 6 5 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 56 57 55 54 51 51 50 41 37 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 17 15 14 13 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -17 -11 -9 -2 -18 -21 -25 -30 -29 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 87 87 83 74 80 40 30 -34 -49 -36 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 937 1001 1104 1157 1192 1329 1475 1685 1875 2115 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.8 15.5 15.9 16.0 16.0 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.1 111.5 112.9 114.5 116.0 119.3 122.4 125.4 128.0 131.1 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 16 16 17 15 14 13 15 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 5. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. -12. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 17. 19. 19. 11. -3. -19. -31. -40. -46. -52.