* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALMA EP011990 05/17/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 47 42 36 31 27 24 21 19 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 51 47 42 36 31 27 24 21 19 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 50 47 43 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 22 24 22 23 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 17 24 34 39 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 14 11 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 72 83 96 110 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.2 25.9 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 127 124 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 55 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -16 -17 -14 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 19 -9 -20 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1452 1506 1562 1652 1749 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.7 14.8 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.1 121.4 122.7 124.0 125.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):267/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -16. -19. -21. -22. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -19. -24. -28. -31. -34. -36. -40. -44. -47.