* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALMA EP011990 05/17/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 46 41 35 26 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 51 46 41 35 26 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 50 46 43 40 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 30 28 28 26 26 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 16 21 31 37 34 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 18 18 13 3 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 56 71 91 110 113 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 124 123 121 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.4 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 58 57 53 48 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -25 -24 -20 -22 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 10 -9 -36 -42 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1421 1460 1524 1629 1723 1922 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 14.9 14.8 14.8 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.9 121.1 122.4 123.7 124.9 127.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 12 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):267/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -20. -29. -34. -37. -40. -42. -46. -49. -52.