* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALMA EP011990 05/17/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 45 38 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 51 45 38 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 50 46 41 37 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 40 27 28 26 26 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 17 23 36 48 49 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 16 9 1 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 79 82 94 111 112 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.0 25.1 24.4 23.8 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 123 114 107 101 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 60 60 56 51 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -39 -32 -41 -44 -51 -63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 44 3 -15 -40 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1357 1328 1331 1374 1408 1518 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.5 16.1 16.5 17.0 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.6 120.3 121.1 122.1 123.0 125.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):267/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -16. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -10. -16. -20. -25. -29. -31. -33. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -10. -17. -26. -43. -53. -62. -69. -75. -81. -87. -92.