* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALMA EP011990 05/17/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 44 39 35 28 23 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 50 44 39 35 28 23 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 50 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 29 25 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 25 32 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 13 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 76 86 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 25.6 25.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 122 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 53 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -21 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 16 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1440 1514 1623 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.2 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.8 122.6 124.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):267/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -7. -10. -15. -20. -24. -27. -29. -29. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -16. -20. -27. -32. -36. -40. -43. -48. -53. -58.