* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ONE AL011990 05/26/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 30 28 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 30 28 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 22 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 36 33 30 25 24 21 13 15 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 44 46 39 43 47 46 52 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 11 16 9 3 -6 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 82 73 63 60 63 78 69 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 134 135 134 132 130 125 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 121 120 118 114 113 107 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -54.6 -54.1 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 12 13 13 15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 57 57 55 53 44 41 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 12 11 11 7 7 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 10 10 14 9 -22 10 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 69 60 35 20 10 16 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 93 63 86 182 219 314 244 176 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.8 23.3 23.1 23.9 24.3 25.7 26.5 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.7 83.7 84.7 85.1 85.1 85.2 84.8 84.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 7 6 5 6 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 12 CX,CY: 5/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 20. 21. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. -8. -21. -29. -38. -43. -46. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. -0. -9. -15. -20. -21. -20. -21.