* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ONE AL011990 05/26/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 30 28 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 30 28 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 22 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 30 27 21 17 17 16 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 48 51 42 42 45 47 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 11 6 1 -5 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 82 76 65 60 62 73 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 26.3 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 9.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 118 135 132 129 128 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 108 121 115 113 112 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.5 -53.4 -54.1 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 12 12 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 56 54 52 53 46 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 11 10 11 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 1 11 18 20 -10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 52 58 40 31 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 77 75 48 122 123 227 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.9 23.7 23.0 23.6 23.9 24.8 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.6 82.6 84.2 84.5 83.7 84.0 82.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 13 9 5 5 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 12 CX,CY: 5/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 782 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 11. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 3. -0. -9. -21. -31. -40. -45. -47. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -2. -9. -14. -19. -20. -19. -20.