* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CRISTINA EP031990 06/12/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 50 52 54 51 44 37 29 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 49 50 52 54 51 44 37 29 21 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 45 45 45 44 43 42 40 37 33 29 V (KT) G02R 52 42 40 37 36 44 44 45 38 38 36 36 35 SHEAR (KT) 14 6 7 8 9 10 4 12 10 9 12 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 0 1 2 5 1 -2 2 4 3 4 SHEAR DIR 187 252 251 259 235 212 210 289 309 298 286 294 297 SST (C) 27.6 27.2 27.1 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.1 25.2 24.7 24.1 24.1 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 137 136 135 133 130 127 122 113 107 100 100 103 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.4 -52.7 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 67 67 64 64 61 62 58 55 49 43 38 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 28 26 25 25 26 27 29 29 27 26 24 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 75 71 70 82 105 90 78 81 61 45 37 42 44 200 MB DIV 143 91 92 92 78 63 48 32 35 40 53 28 20 LAND (KM) 971 1031 1105 1191 1253 1403 1434 1505 1482 1482 1470 1527 1600 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.7 14.8 14.4 14.6 14.7 15.6 16.0 16.6 16.6 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 113.2 114.8 116.1 117.3 118.3 119.9 120.7 121.9 122.6 123.0 123.4 124.1 124.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 12 11 10 5 6 5 5 3 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 2. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 6. -1. -8. -16. -24. -31.