* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CRISTINA EP031990 06/12/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 50 51 57 56 53 48 39 27 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 50 51 57 56 53 48 39 27 19 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 45 45 46 46 45 43 40 38 34 30 V (KT) G09R 40 37 34 37 37 40 46 44 43 37 37 35 32 SHEAR (KT) 16 10 9 8 8 9 18 8 11 17 29 21 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 0 0 2 0 -3 2 2 -3 -1 5 14 SHEAR DIR 195 234 230 211 196 204 249 303 302 292 313 309 289 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.1 25.4 25.2 25.1 25.2 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 137 136 134 130 128 122 114 111 109 112 114 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -53.3 -52.5 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 71 67 66 63 61 61 61 62 58 54 49 44 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 27 26 27 27 30 31 30 29 27 24 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 84 75 62 70 83 63 56 46 40 37 31 39 50 200 MB DIV 142 83 64 69 72 33 13 25 75 63 47 36 26 LAND (KM) 1010 1051 1103 1145 1212 1292 1357 1324 1288 1249 1209 1249 1312 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.7 15.4 16.2 16.5 16.8 16.5 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.6 115.6 116.6 117.6 118.6 119.6 120.1 120.6 120.4 120.2 120.4 120.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 8 4 4 5 3 2 1 4 2 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 3. 5. 5. 4. 0. -4. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 6. 12. 11. 8. 3. -6. -18. -26. -34.