* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CRISTINA EP031990 06/13/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 53 54 53 48 40 31 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 53 54 53 48 40 31 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 50 50 50 49 47 45 42 38 35 32 30 V (KT) G01R 50 45 46 43 41 38 39 36 37 33 31 30 29 SHEAR (KT) 6 10 10 9 9 9 12 12 10 8 14 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 0 1 -1 1 -2 1 2 1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 155 224 223 240 278 293 286 299 297 296 318 3 347 SST (C) 26.7 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.6 25.9 25.2 24.8 24.2 24.2 24.1 24.4 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 130 129 128 121 112 107 100 99 101 106 110 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -52.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.7 -53.4 -54.0 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 64 65 66 65 64 60 58 53 47 42 36 33 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 29 29 30 30 29 28 26 25 22 19 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 69 70 58 62 64 53 52 46 36 33 25 28 37 200 MB DIV 45 37 26 37 49 14 34 27 -3 9 20 -18 -18 LAND (KM) 1039 1121 1172 1192 1198 1241 1264 1283 1289 1282 1312 1420 1593 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.2 15.0 15.1 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.6 17.0 17.0 17.0 16.4 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 116.2 116.9 117.4 117.8 118.2 119.5 120.5 121.0 121.5 121.4 121.8 122.6 124.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 4 4 6 6 4 3 1 0 3 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -2. -10. -19. -28. -38. -43. -45.