* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CRISTINA EP031990 06/14/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 31 30 27 22 17 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 31 30 27 22 17 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 26 26 27 28 28 29 V (KT) G01R 45 35 30 28 26 25 25 28 27 26 25 23 21 SHEAR (KT) 13 4 9 12 12 10 11 12 15 16 17 21 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 4 -1 -7 -5 -4 -3 -1 0 7 4 3 1 SHEAR DIR 94 25 336 316 314 308 329 21 42 48 38 46 112 SST (C) 25.2 25.1 25.3 25.7 25.8 25.6 25.2 25.6 26.0 26.3 26.7 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 116 114 115 118 117 115 112 117 122 126 131 139 138 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 55 52 52 51 51 50 46 40 36 35 33 33 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 14 12 11 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 47 66 69 64 51 27 9 6 0 4 -2 16 8 200 MB DIV 17 56 40 22 19 11 10 1 -3 -9 -12 -13 -25 LAND (KM) 1213 1335 1443 1521 1536 1545 1539 1642 1783 1979 2201 2485 2427 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 16.8 16.2 15.8 15.7 15.8 16.2 15.8 15.1 14.1 13.2 11.7 11.3 LONG(DEG W) 120.8 121.9 122.7 123.3 123.4 123.6 123.9 124.8 125.9 127.4 129.3 131.5 133.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 8 4 1 2 3 5 8 10 11 13 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):298/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -18. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -8. -13. -15. -17. -15. -12.