* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CRISTINA EP031990 06/15/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 28 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 28 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 25 25 24 22 22 22 23 25 DIS V (KT) G09R 32 30 28 28 27 25 24 22 23 24 22 23 0 SHEAR (KT) 17 10 7 6 6 9 15 10 7 8 12 15 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -8 -4 0 5 3 1 3 4 3 4 0 N/A SHEAR DIR 341 344 356 346 3 332 351 21 18 19 47 146 N/A SST (C) 24.5 25.0 25.0 25.1 25.1 25.2 25.3 26.0 26.7 27.1 27.2 27.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 110 109 110 109 112 114 123 131 137 138 139 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -54.5 -54.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 10 10 N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 44 47 43 42 39 36 35 31 32 28 32 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 16 16 14 13 11 9 7 7 6 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 31 22 9 0 -6 -6 -2 -5 3 -7 1 N/A 200 MB DIV 38 6 -20 -19 -12 -21 -39 -9 -25 -20 -24 -53 N/A LAND (KM) 1245 1205 1182 1151 1136 1190 1290 1467 1675 1964 2323 2509 N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.4 16.8 15.6 14.7 13.4 12.2 11.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.6 120.9 120.7 120.4 120.3 120.6 121.3 122.4 124.2 126.6 129.9 132.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 3 2 0 3 6 10 11 16 14 18 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):289/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 16. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -12. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 3. -0. -6. -10. -13. -10. -10. -7. -7.