* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CRISTINA EP031990 06/16/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 17 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 45 37 35 33 30 26 22 24 23 18 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 17 24 24 25 25 23 26 32 42 41 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 7 8 8 12 13 12 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 33 47 62 68 68 66 66 83 114 137 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 24.1 24.3 24.6 25.0 26.0 26.7 27.5 27.8 28.2 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 104 107 110 114 125 132 141 145 149 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 8 10 11 12 11 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 35 34 33 32 32 30 32 32 42 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 14 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -15 -4 0 -3 0 -7 -2 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -24 -9 -20 -31 -20 -29 -28 -1 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1493 1596 1722 1843 1974 2284 2443 2295 2078 1976 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.2 16.8 16.3 15.6 13.8 12.3 10.6 9.6 7.5 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.4 125.5 126.8 127.9 128.9 131.1 133.2 135.5 138.4 141.3 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 17 17 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):254/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 23. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -13. -18. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -15. -17. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -8. -10. -12. -13. -12. -12.