* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CRISTINA EP031990 06/16/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 20 19 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 20 19 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 17 16 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 27 26 20 20 23 22 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 18 18 13 12 10 15 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 1 4 8 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 17 29 58 69 67 76 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.8 24.2 24.5 24.6 24.8 25.3 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 102 104 106 110 117 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.4 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 39 40 36 35 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -24 -30 -31 -29 -11 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -19 -8 -27 -49 -45 -38 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1411 1434 1464 1496 1543 1773 1993 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 17.1 16.8 16.7 16.5 15.6 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.6 123.4 123.5 123.8 124.2 126.2 128.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 4 7 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):254/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -10. -12. -13.