* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CRISTINA EP031990 06/16/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 21 21 23 24 26 27 30 30 31 31 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 21 21 23 24 26 27 30 30 31 31 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 17 17 18 19 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 30 28 24 24 25 24 22 23 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 15 15 9 7 5 5 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 3 4 4 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 356 4 34 53 59 68 63 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 24.9 25.3 25.8 26.2 26.8 26.7 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 111 114 119 124 131 131 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 39 39 37 34 33 32 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -13 -12 -18 -17 -6 -2 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -23 -5 -29 -53 -46 -42 -23 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1378 1460 1522 1591 1645 1792 1990 2274 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 16.4 16.0 15.5 15.1 14.3 13.6 12.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.8 123.1 123.5 123.9 124.2 125.3 127.1 129.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 7 11 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):254/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 10. 10. 11. 11.