* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ELIDA EP051990 06/28/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 83 85 84 78 68 57 45 34 24 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 75 80 83 85 84 78 68 57 45 34 24 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 81 83 82 80 73 64 57 49 43 37 33 29 V (KT) G00R 36 30 30 31 30 30 26 28 28 26 25 21 22 SHEAR (KT) 7 8 10 10 10 12 9 9 10 14 16 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 2 3 2 0 0 1 -2 0 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 342 352 24 16 333 330 309 324 331 357 27 27 358 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.4 25.6 24.7 24.3 23.1 23.1 23.6 24.4 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 129 130 128 120 111 108 95 95 100 107 112 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -54.0 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 7 8 7 6 4 4 4 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 65 63 61 57 54 46 41 34 33 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 20 21 21 21 20 20 18 17 15 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 59 57 77 92 99 114 95 64 66 51 37 49 43 200 MB DIV 118 134 113 96 64 20 23 14 -13 -30 -31 -30 -26 LAND (KM) 538 525 502 521 584 691 807 1022 1274 1562 1842 2155 2130 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.2 19.6 20.1 20.5 20.5 20.0 19.4 17.9 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 110.6 111.5 112.8 114.0 116.0 118.3 121.2 124.7 127.8 130.6 133.1 134.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 11 12 10 11 12 16 16 15 14 12 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -5. -10. -16. -22. -27. -32. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 11. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -6. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 10. 9. 3. -7. -18. -30. -41. -51. -58. -64.