* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * SIX EP061990 06/30/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 39 44 49 51 48 48 43 39 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 39 44 49 51 48 48 43 39 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 31 31 29 28 28 29 30 29 27 26 V (KT) G00R 25 23 25 27 27 21 20 24 29 30 33 28 24 SHEAR (KT) 20 22 18 16 11 9 13 14 19 17 23 23 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 2 5 10 2 -4 -1 4 11 3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 204 236 246 247 235 246 284 298 291 283 274 273 286 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 150 153 156 152 150 146 143 143 139 137 132 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.8 -53.3 -52.8 -53.9 -53.2 -53.8 -53.2 -53.8 -52.9 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 82 81 82 80 80 78 77 78 76 75 74 74 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 13 14 14 12 13 16 18 18 20 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -39 -26 -24 -16 3 23 38 44 65 76 79 88 200 MB DIV 96 122 125 129 128 70 83 60 96 83 63 34 5 LAND (KM) 749 834 810 782 686 562 609 745 814 849 881 889 913 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.6 10.9 11.2 12.1 14.3 15.1 15.6 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.5 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 102.6 104.5 104.6 104.7 104.7 106.6 108.6 110.8 112.3 113.5 114.5 115.1 116.2 STM SPEED (KT) 19 10 3 6 12 11 11 10 5 6 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):302/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 32. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 2. 4. 8. 11. 11. 14. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 14. 19. 21. 18. 18. 13. 9.