* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ELIDA EP051990 07/02/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 22 21 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 22 18 17 17 16 14 14 13 11 13 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 3 4 4 3 4 9 6 2 3 7 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 5 4 2 5 15 11 11 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 270 239 251 216 210 229 202 295 8 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.8 23.1 23.3 23.4 23.6 23.7 23.5 23.5 23.2 23.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 90 93 95 96 98 98 96 97 91 94 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 41 39 35 34 32 28 22 18 17 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 9 8 8 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 104 105 90 70 65 56 28 21 1 -13 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -29 -30 -17 -30 -12 -5 -23 -28 -18 -4 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1618 1725 1822 1913 1990 2122 2102 1945 1837 1765 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 19.6 19.3 19.1 19.0 19.2 20.2 20.8 21.8 21.8 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.6 129.4 130.3 131.2 132.0 133.6 134.7 136.2 137.3 138.0 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 10 4 6 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -18. -24. -28. -31. -33. -35.