* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ELIDA EP051990 07/02/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 21 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 27 23 22 23 23 19 15 15 14 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 1 1 5 5 6 9 5 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 5 4 4 11 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 90 159 146 127 118 145 146 141 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.4 22.5 22.6 22.7 23.0 23.2 23.2 23.3 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 85 86 88 89 93 94 93 94 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 40 37 34 31 28 24 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 13 12 10 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 104 88 63 47 48 49 32 21 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -23 -23 -11 -24 -9 -32 -17 -30 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1508 1584 1683 1777 1893 2038 1939 1787 1706 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.0 20.9 20.9 21.0 20.9 21.3 21.7 21.9 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.9 128.7 129.8 130.9 132.1 134.6 136.3 137.8 138.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 12 11 7 7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -6. -5. -5. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -17. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -9. -15. -23. -30. -38. -41. -45. -48. -51.