* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FAUSTO EP071990 07/06/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 41 50 56 56 50 48 42 39 32 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 41 50 56 56 50 48 42 39 32 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 30 31 31 32 31 31 30 29 28 V (KT) G08R 32 35 36 35 37 45 45 44 37 32 30 27 25 SHEAR (KT) 18 10 8 6 9 10 10 8 12 4 8 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 1 1 2 1 2 3 -1 6 3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 229 196 186 172 182 239 254 187 197 230 268 293 300 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.8 26.8 25.8 25.3 24.9 24.0 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 152 150 147 142 133 121 114 110 102 91 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.6 -54.1 -53.8 -53.0 -54.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -53.7 -53.6 -54.1 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 12 9 9 10 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 79 80 81 82 82 79 77 72 70 68 64 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 18 19 20 22 23 21 17 17 15 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -15 -3 5 7 17 51 58 45 42 44 33 28 200 MB DIV 115 81 113 115 147 132 165 83 52 25 48 11 3 LAND (KM) 576 494 430 407 392 317 250 262 304 247 203 213 161 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.9 13.7 14.3 14.6 15.7 17.1 18.7 20.2 20.8 21.7 22.8 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 101.8 102.1 102.5 103.2 103.7 104.6 105.6 107.5 109.5 110.8 111.5 112.6 113.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 7 7 7 10 13 10 5 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):321/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 25. 27. 28. 27. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 12. 10. 4. 5. 1. -0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 31. 31. 25. 23. 17. 14. 7.