* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FAUSTO EP071990 07/09/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 74 71 65 54 42 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 75 74 71 65 54 42 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 75 73 70 65 57 48 42 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 34 31 30 28 25 23 19 17 13 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 9 6 6 5 8 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 3 4 0 0 0 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 305 269 263 261 256 301 215 234 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 25.7 25.3 24.9 24.3 23.3 22.7 22.4 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 121 117 112 106 96 89 86 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 6 6 6 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 74 75 73 69 66 57 52 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 24 22 21 20 17 15 13 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 78 69 71 61 22 6 -6 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 104 77 43 42 49 7 -8 -5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 469 408 352 374 371 431 552 632 762 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.4 20.4 21.0 21.8 22.9 23.6 24.3 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.2 112.1 113.0 113.9 116.0 118.1 120.0 122.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 11 11 12 9 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):308/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -6. -13. -21. -29. -37. -42. -45. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -19. -22. -22. -23. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -4. -10. -21. -33. -48. -62. -68. -73. -77. -80.