* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * FAUSTO EP071990 07/09/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 73 71 66 56 45 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 75 73 71 66 56 45 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 75 73 69 65 56 48 42 38 33 29 24 DIS V (KT) G07R 35 31 34 34 35 30 26 22 18 16 15 12 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 8 10 8 4 6 5 5 3 8 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 2 0 -3 1 0 0 0 5 1 N/A SHEAR DIR 306 268 241 225 239 289 209 224 233 164 76 85 N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.7 25.4 24.8 24.0 23.2 22.6 22.3 21.6 20.9 20.7 21.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 120 117 112 103 95 88 85 77 71 68 78 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.4 -53.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 6 6 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 76 76 72 67 65 58 55 50 49 45 40 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 23 22 22 21 19 18 16 13 11 9 7 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 51 36 34 31 24 -1 -11 -11 -19 -19 -20 N/A 200 MB DIV 112 88 57 36 18 1 -4 6 10 -14 11 -15 N/A LAND (KM) 421 412 367 344 326 425 551 664 813 1003 1175 1399 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.5 20.3 21.2 22.2 23.0 23.8 24.3 24.9 25.3 25.8 25.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.6 112.2 112.8 113.8 116.0 118.3 120.4 122.5 124.7 127.1 130.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 12 12 11 10 10 10 11 10 16 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):308/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -14. -22. -30. -38. -45. -51. -55. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -18. -21. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -4. -9. -19. -30. -44. -56. -66. -78. -87. -91.