* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GENEVIEVE EP081990 07/13/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 71 72 71 68 62 52 42 32 28 25 22 V (KT) LAND 65 69 71 72 71 68 62 52 42 32 28 25 22 V (KT) LGE mod 65 68 70 71 71 68 63 58 52 47 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 33 27 26 26 25 21 17 13 11 8 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 3 2 6 9 12 8 12 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 1 -2 0 4 -3 0 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 124 170 184 195 210 232 281 304 313 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.7 25.1 24.2 23.6 22.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 137 132 129 125 119 113 104 97 90 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.4 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 9 9 7 6 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 77 73 68 66 65 60 60 54 51 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 14 13 12 11 9 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 35 34 37 29 11 -3 -4 -7 -9 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 131 80 35 16 36 17 -21 0 -15 -3 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 447 513 517 480 455 493 533 578 634 625 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.0 19.9 20.9 21.6 22.5 23.2 24.4 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.3 109.6 110.8 112.0 113.0 114.6 116.2 117.4 118.8 120.0 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 11 8 8 8 7 8 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):309/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -14. -18. -20. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. -3. -13. -23. -33. -37. -40. -43.