* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GENEVIEVE EP081990 07/13/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 71 73 74 75 73 68 61 53 44 34 25 V (KT) LAND 65 68 71 73 74 75 73 68 61 53 44 34 25 V (KT) LGE mod 65 68 71 72 73 73 70 66 61 55 49 42 36 V (KT) G04R 28 24 23 23 23 23 24 27 25 21 18 18 18 SHEAR (KT) 4 5 7 12 13 8 5 4 9 12 10 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -5 -3 2 0 1 1 -2 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 258 269 215 214 210 214 250 292 290 309 330 356 352 SST (C) 27.7 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.0 26.1 25.5 24.7 24.2 23.3 23.2 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 151 150 150 148 135 125 119 109 104 95 93 92 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 9 9 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 80 78 77 75 72 71 66 63 59 58 58 55 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 16 15 14 15 15 15 15 15 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 24 31 43 44 38 35 46 59 60 43 38 35 37 200 MB DIV 116 96 66 25 22 32 30 36 24 7 -15 4 1 LAND (KM) 477 670 733 712 676 738 845 1058 1215 1320 1398 1538 1624 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.1 16.2 16.8 17.6 19.0 19.7 20.0 20.1 20.2 21.1 21.4 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 108.5 110.3 111.1 112.1 113.2 115.8 118.4 121.2 123.5 125.0 126.7 128.5 129.8 STM SPEED (KT) 18 13 9 12 13 14 13 13 9 8 9 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):309/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -3. -7. -12. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -3. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 8. 3. -4. -12. -21. -31. -40.