* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GENEVIEVE EP081990 07/15/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 65 61 56 42 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 68 65 61 56 42 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 69 66 62 58 49 39 30 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 29 25 24 24 24 20 17 12 10 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 11 9 7 7 4 9 12 12 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 2 0 0 0 4 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 286 308 345 32 21 18 1 359 344 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 24.9 24.4 23.8 23.3 22.6 21.4 20.9 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 112 106 101 95 88 75 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 5 5 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 61 60 58 52 49 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 14 12 11 8 6 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 33 27 22 12 -10 -15 -26 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 0 -2 13 -7 3 -2 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 514 504 537 582 567 561 623 662 707 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.6 22.0 22.6 23.5 25.0 26.4 27.2 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.8 116.6 117.5 118.2 119.7 121.1 121.8 122.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 11 10 10 8 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -8. -16. -24. -34. -43. -48. -51. -54. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -17. -19. -19. -20. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -14. -28. -45. -64. -80. -89. -95.-100.-104.