* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GENEVIEVE EP081990 07/15/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 67 63 59 47 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 69 67 63 59 47 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 69 67 64 60 51 42 33 25 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 33 26 25 23 25 19 17 12 11 10 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 6 2 3 4 12 14 14 16 15 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 4 1 0 0 4 2 10 9 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 265 293 42 5 24 15 26 17 12 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 25.8 25.0 24.2 23.6 22.9 21.9 21.0 20.0 18.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 121 113 105 99 91 80 71 61 60 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 6 5 3 2 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 68 66 63 60 58 54 50 44 39 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 10 9 8 7 6 3 0 -1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 31 25 20 2 -5 -10 -20 -20 -23 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 3 1 8 -9 5 14 10 5 16 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 615 615 609 626 642 639 657 708 664 500 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.3 21.0 21.8 22.7 24.0 25.5 26.8 28.6 30.5 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.1 115.8 116.6 117.5 118.3 119.8 121.1 122.1 122.7 122.5 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 12 10 10 9 8 11 7 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -5. -13. -21. -30. -40. -47. -50. -53. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -14. -17. -20. -21. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -11. -23. -38. -57. -76. -92.-100.-105.-110.