* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GENEVIEVE EP081990 07/16/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 63 57 49 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 67 63 57 49 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 67 63 58 52 40 30 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 32 28 30 27 25 20 17 13 11 12 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 2 9 10 10 12 18 13 15 19 21 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 5 7 2 7 6 6 0 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 314 357 8 354 12 7 0 352 351 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.2 23.6 23.0 22.3 21.1 20.5 20.2 20.0 19.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 105 99 93 86 72 65 60 57 56 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 61 58 56 55 48 43 40 39 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 16 14 13 10 7 4 2 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 23 11 3 -2 -23 -23 -22 -12 -18 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 14 21 26 18 17 18 -2 -3 -7 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 779 836 826 842 854 914 958 889 840 825 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.4 22.2 22.9 23.8 25.4 26.8 28.0 28.6 28.7 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.7 119.6 120.4 121.4 122.3 123.8 125.1 125.6 125.7 125.6 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 9 8 4 3 1 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):288/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -7. -11. -22. -32. -42. -52. -58. -61. -64. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -3. -7. -12. -17. -19. -21. -22. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -13. -21. -40. -60. -80. -97.-111.-119.-125.-131.