* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GENEVIEVE EP081990 07/16/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 67 62 57 52 38 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 67 62 57 52 38 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 67 63 58 54 44 35 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 29 28 22 22 20 16 14 14 13 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 9 13 13 13 15 17 16 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 4 3 5 7 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 330 333 351 344 340 355 359 9 359 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 24.5 24.2 23.7 23.2 22.6 22.1 22.0 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 107 105 100 94 87 82 80 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -54.4 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 65 62 62 57 54 51 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 8 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 49 43 40 39 10 5 -16 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 40 42 50 44 25 12 -10 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 853 876 922 964 1017 1113 1249 1335 1475 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.0 21.3 21.7 22.1 22.5 22.9 23.2 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.2 119.8 120.7 121.8 122.9 124.4 126.2 127.3 128.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 11 10 7 8 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):288/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -9. -17. -25. -33. -40. -44. -47. -50. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -13. -18. -32. -47. -62. -75. -82. -89. -94.-100.