* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HERNAN EP091990 07/27/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 66 58 51 43 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 66 58 51 43 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 65 58 52 47 40 33 27 22 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 65 46 44 39 36 32 30 26 22 21 22 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 3 6 6 2 9 15 22 26 27 37 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 6 6 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 156 111 99 139 190 82 73 79 66 71 48 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.0 23.9 23.8 23.6 23.2 22.9 23.1 23.2 22.9 22.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 103 102 100 98 95 92 94 95 92 89 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 70 70 69 67 64 54 47 42 39 36 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 27 26 25 23 21 18 13 11 8 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 28 37 34 18 4 -2 0 -1 -3 3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 58 36 17 18 14 7 -2 8 14 35 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1494 1550 1638 1712 1769 1816 1878 1852 1689 1544 1488 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.7 22.8 23.9 25.0 26.0 27.2 29.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.9 128.1 129.3 130.3 131.2 133.2 135.3 137.8 139.9 142.2 144.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 11 12 12 11 13 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):286/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -19. -26. -33. -39. -43. -47. -50. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. -1. -5. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -11. -12. -11. -9. -7. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 5. 8. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -17. -23. -26. -28. -30. -28. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -17. -24. -32. -45. -62. -79. -93.-105.-117.-122.-126.