* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * BERTHA AL031990 07/27/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 49 59 66 70 73 75 76 76 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 49 59 66 70 73 75 76 76 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 49 54 55 54 52 49 V (KT) G09R 27 25 26 20 18 23 24 30 31 38 42 41 40 SHEAR (KT) 20 21 13 7 11 10 17 23 32 34 36 31 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -3 -4 1 -3 -2 -2 -2 3 1 -5 SHEAR DIR 94 89 105 99 86 136 88 102 75 78 77 70 63 SST (C) 27.8 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.0 28.6 27.8 26.6 25.6 25.9 26.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 147 147 148 151 150 145 135 121 113 115 120 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 132 127 125 127 128 124 119 107 102 101 102 99 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -54.6 -55.1 -54.6 -55.3 -54.7 -55.4 -54.5 -54.9 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 11 11 10 9 7 700-500 MB RH 63 56 57 56 57 58 60 57 54 56 57 56 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 11 12 12 13 14 17 20 23 27 30 850 MB ENV VOR 24 39 60 65 75 68 72 45 55 48 58 62 59 200 MB DIV 32 20 5 10 22 26 51 53 43 53 51 47 22 LAND (KM) 536 326 243 206 190 202 356 493 500 667 852 746 695 LAT (DEG N) 29.8 29.0 28.3 27.8 27.3 27.4 28.6 30.1 31.7 33.4 35.2 37.3 38.4 LONG(DEG W) 75.2 77.2 78.0 78.2 78.2 78.1 76.8 75.5 72.6 69.1 65.2 62.1 60.7 STM SPEED (KT) 19 14 7 5 4 6 8 13 14 20 17 14 7 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):244/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 34. 41. 45. 48. 50. 51. 51.