* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HERNAN EP091990 07/27/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 66 60 54 47 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 66 60 54 47 34 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 66 59 54 50 42 36 31 26 22 18 DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 49 46 41 39 41 38 31 24 23 20 21 18 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 7 4 11 9 11 13 16 20 21 20 19 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 2 5 7 5 10 5 9 6 11 13 N/A SHEAR DIR 188 229 152 159 151 110 94 117 102 118 106 92 N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.1 24.6 24.1 23.8 23.6 23.6 23.8 23.6 23.7 23.6 23.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 112 109 104 101 99 99 100 98 100 98 97 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 77 75 71 68 62 56 50 46 44 39 39 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 24 23 23 22 20 17 14 11 9 6 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 41 44 33 13 5 -2 -10 -21 -49 -47 -52 N/A 200 MB DIV 26 55 39 -6 -10 -4 -9 -15 -8 -16 -31 7 N/A LAND (KM) 1519 1543 1557 1588 1644 1793 1913 1949 1782 1632 1505 1347 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.2 19.7 20.4 21.1 21.9 22.3 22.6 23.5 24.5 25.6 26.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.4 126.9 127.5 128.4 129.5 131.6 134.0 136.3 138.1 139.9 141.7 143.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 9 12 11 11 11 9 9 10 9 12 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):286/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -9. -16. -23. -29. -34. -38. -42. -45. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -11. -12. -11. -9. -7. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -12. -18. -20. -23. -25. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -15. -21. -28. -41. -53. -67. -76. -87. -98.-108.-115.