* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ISELLE EP101990 07/30/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 22 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 19 19 17 16 17 16 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 19 17 13 13 13 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 2 2 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 310 314 312 303 314 20 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.7 22.7 23.3 23.8 24.0 24.7 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 88 89 96 101 103 111 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -55.2 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 4 5 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 44 46 43 42 40 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 7 8 7 7 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -58 -56 -58 -57 -43 -6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -29 -22 3 2 -4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 774 849 970 1094 1215 1450 1720 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.6 24.2 22.9 21.8 21.1 19.5 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.9 122.5 123.0 123.6 124.5 126.0 128.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 13 11 10 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):108/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -17. -20. -22. -26. -27. -28.