* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * BERTHA AL031990 07/30/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 47 46 45 47 46 42 38 34 28 23 15 V (KT) LAND 50 48 47 46 45 47 46 42 38 35 29 30 24 V (KT) LGE mod 50 47 45 43 42 40 40 41 41 39 32 34 47 V (KT) G05R 52 42 44 41 47 53 50 47 45 38 24 24 22 SHEAR (KT) 27 33 30 21 26 13 6 5 12 30 32 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -5 4 4 -2 -2 1 4 5 -6 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 50 62 70 54 40 41 37 51 30 9 356 3 28 SST (C) 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.4 26.6 26.6 25.3 22.6 16.6 15.2 8.8 12.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 115 116 120 121 120 107 91 74 72 63 63 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 98 101 105 103 100 88 79 70 68 61 61 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 9 9 7 7 6 4 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 56 55 56 56 53 47 50 55 61 60 46 41 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 34 32 32 32 34 37 36 33 31 31 27 24 18 850 MB ENV VOR 68 84 84 81 66 57 85 107 125 121 118 108 120 200 MB DIV 63 40 15 28 23 7 42 32 53 58 61 22 15 LAND (KM) 609 670 707 769 681 551 422 271 113 93 -46 0 -29 LAT (DEG N) 32.4 32.6 33.5 34.7 36.2 38.0 39.7 41.4 44.0 48.4 50.7 49.8 50.5 LONG(DEG W) 70.3 69.5 68.6 67.5 66.8 66.1 65.5 63.7 61.6 61.0 63.2 64.2 61.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 13 15 12 10 8 13 19 20 8 5 13 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 11 CX,CY: 9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -14. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -4. -8. -12. -16. -22. -27. -35.