* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ISELLE EP101990 07/30/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 17 16 16 15 15 15 14 12 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 15 9 7 8 7 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 0 0 4 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 302 304 310 301 307 24 54 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.3 22.5 22.9 23.3 23.4 23.8 24.3 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 83 87 92 95 96 100 105 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.6 -54.8 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 44 46 43 40 40 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -66 -65 -68 -66 -55 -26 -12 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -25 -18 -5 -11 -9 6 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 804 860 967 1088 1170 1382 1552 1725 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.1 24.5 23.5 22.5 22.0 20.7 19.9 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.5 122.8 123.4 124.1 124.7 126.2 127.6 129.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 12 10 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):108/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -17. -22. -27. -29. -32. -34. -36.