* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * BERTHA AL031990 07/30/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 48 48 48 48 49 48 46 39 33 27 20 V (KT) LAND 50 48 48 48 48 48 49 48 46 39 34 29 30 V (KT) LGE mod 50 47 45 44 43 41 41 43 45 43 40 31 30 V (KT) G07R 53 43 45 46 49 51 49 52 49 43 33 20 17 SHEAR (KT) 29 30 30 22 21 8 3 5 14 30 35 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 4 2 3 -1 -1 1 5 -4 -4 2 SHEAR DIR 45 51 55 31 22 30 328 345 38 19 4 357 48 SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.5 26.6 26.5 25.3 22.3 17.0 15.8 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 116 117 119 120 119 107 89 74 72 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 101 102 102 102 98 89 78 69 68 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -52.9 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -52.9 -52.3 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 10 9 9 9 7 7 5 3 1 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 55 57 55 54 52 46 49 55 62 65 53 43 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 36 34 35 37 38 39 39 37 36 33 30 25 20 850 MB ENV VOR 62 90 99 96 85 60 78 114 135 156 150 144 137 200 MB DIV 64 53 36 33 0 23 40 42 51 75 77 41 15 LAND (KM) 618 698 709 734 681 523 412 262 136 74 14 -82 -149 LAT (DEG N) 32.5 32.7 34.2 35.2 36.2 38.4 39.8 41.5 43.8 47.6 50.1 51.0 51.6 LONG(DEG W) 70.2 69.1 68.2 67.7 66.8 66.0 65.1 63.7 61.5 60.2 61.3 62.2 62.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 14 12 12 10 9 12 17 18 8 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 11 CX,CY: 9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -4. -6. -10. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -4. -11. -17. -23. -30.