* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HERNAN EP091990 07/30/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 25 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 27 24 21 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 20 23 28 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 9 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 41 43 49 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.6 23.7 23.9 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 100 103 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 45 44 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 17 3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -15 -7 33 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1872 1764 1628 1525 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.1 138.2 139.6 140.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -7. -13. -18. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -16. -23. -30. -36. -43. -49. -54.