* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CESAR AL041990 07/31/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 50 56 60 66 70 75 78 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 50 56 60 66 70 75 78 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 30 33 36 42 49 57 V (KT) G00R 26 29 31 33 30 32 39 41 40 45 42 49 49 SHEAR (KT) 19 15 15 16 10 8 9 13 9 6 9 12 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 3 -2 2 5 6 3 5 9 3 6 3 SHEAR DIR 251 241 226 235 253 251 284 283 329 336 38 46 20 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.1 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 132 131 130 126 122 116 114 113 114 118 117 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 128 131 132 132 128 121 114 112 108 108 111 107 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.6 -55.4 -55.0 -55.4 -55.6 -55.3 -55.1 -54.6 -55.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 74 78 79 79 78 70 65 62 59 53 48 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 17 18 17 21 23 24 23 25 24 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 55 53 50 43 36 52 83 85 87 80 58 26 12 200 MB DIV 84 72 76 101 103 74 91 50 46 7 15 -3 35 LAND (KM) 496 489 548 577 654 1007 1376 1707 2018 1955 1893 1937 2019 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 10.2 10.7 11.8 12.8 13.8 14.5 15.2 16.1 17.2 18.3 20.1 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 20.5 20.7 21.6 22.1 23.2 26.7 30.2 33.3 36.2 39.3 41.7 43.6 45.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 11 13 16 18 16 15 17 13 12 13 10 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 25. 31. 35. 41. 45. 50. 53.