* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CESAR AL041990 07/31/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 43 49 55 58 59 61 66 69 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 43 49 55 58 59 61 66 69 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 32 34 38 43 49 V (KT) G09R 25 29 33 31 25 33 34 36 33 37 37 38 40 SHEAR (KT) 19 18 18 9 8 12 13 21 17 13 16 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -1 1 4 6 5 -1 -1 4 0 3 2 SHEAR DIR 257 242 220 240 256 268 290 305 326 331 348 5 6 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.1 25.9 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 133 133 129 126 122 116 114 114 115 118 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 128 138 139 132 127 122 112 110 110 109 112 112 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.5 -55.3 -54.9 -55.3 -55.3 -55.2 -55.4 -55.0 -55.2 -55.2 -55.5 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 11 700-500 MB RH 75 78 80 79 75 72 69 63 62 56 52 47 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 18 19 18 20 21 22 22 20 19 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 63 57 48 47 50 67 96 98 85 61 51 26 22 200 MB DIV 91 99 99 106 118 87 88 42 32 -25 -8 14 12 LAND (KM) 508 505 470 554 705 1062 1387 1717 1975 1958 1832 1771 1794 LAT (DEG N) 9.3 9.6 10.6 12.4 13.1 13.7 14.4 15.2 15.8 16.8 17.5 18.7 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 20.3 20.6 20.7 22.0 23.7 27.2 30.3 33.5 35.8 38.8 41.6 44.2 46.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 16 19 18 16 16 13 13 15 13 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 2. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 18. 24. 30. 33. 34. 36. 41. 44.