* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CESAR AL041990 08/07/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 37 41 45 48 50 51 54 56 58 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 37 41 45 48 50 51 54 56 58 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 32 35 38 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 22 19 17 16 15 14 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 18 17 16 12 12 16 19 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 1 0 0 0 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 78 82 88 91 75 86 76 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 121 120 121 122 122 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 104 102 100 102 104 104 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.1 -56.3 -56.6 -56.9 -56.9 -57.7 -57.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 41 39 41 42 42 48 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -93 -99 -101 -96 -87 -92 -80 -61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -47 -26 2 -3 0 -7 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2203 2163 2131 2126 2140 2155 2253 2140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.3 27.3 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.2 46.6 46.8 47.0 46.7 46.6 45.7 45.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 0 2 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):138/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 20. 22. 24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 24. 26. 28.