* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DIANA AL051990 08/07/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 70 71 72 77 82 87 89 89 88 86 V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 70 54 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 62 69 72 55 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 39 38 41 47 31 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 3 2 9 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 35 244 219 214 193 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.3 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 155 157 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 143 148 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.9 -53.4 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 16 13 11 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 67 67 67 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 24 25 24 21 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -16 -14 -8 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 72 83 58 87 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 246 230 155 43 -84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.7 20.6 20.7 20.8 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.2 94.2 95.2 96.6 97.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 11 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -5. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 15. 16. 17. 22. 27. 32. 34. 34. 33. 31.