* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DIANA AL051990 08/07/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 69 70 73 78 83 88 90 91 91 91 V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 69 49 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 62 69 71 50 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 39 39 37 38 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 7 1 5 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -3 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 34 49 188 174 171 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 9.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 157 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 144 146 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 13 11 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 66 65 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 22 21 19 16 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -25 -29 -28 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 65 54 70 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 276 183 87 -5 -116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 20.4 20.3 20.4 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.8 94.7 95.7 96.8 98.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 14. 15. 18. 23. 28. 33. 35. 36. 36. 36.