* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DIANA AL051990 08/07/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 69 70 72 77 82 87 89 89 88 87 V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 69 50 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 62 69 71 51 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 37 41 44 44 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 2 4 9 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 34 173 197 219 179 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.3 12.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 157 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 147 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.3 -54.0 -53.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 16 12 11 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 67 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 24 23 22 18 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -23 -23 -15 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 74 62 89 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 245 192 135 3 -83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.3 20.5 20.4 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.8 94.5 95.3 96.7 97.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -6. -11. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 14. 15. 17. 22. 27. 32. 34. 34. 33. 32.