* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EDOUARD AL061990 08/07/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 43 49 52 51 50 49 47 44 41 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 43 49 52 51 50 49 47 44 41 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 38 42 44 45 46 47 47 46 V (KT) G05R 29 30 27 26 26 21 18 17 20 20 17 14 14 SHEAR (KT) 15 15 20 22 29 33 37 32 29 28 27 28 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -6 -3 0 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 119 128 138 136 131 108 85 73 72 73 71 68 64 SST (C) 23.9 24.1 24.3 24.6 24.8 24.8 24.3 23.6 23.2 22.9 22.6 22.4 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 94 96 97 99 101 101 99 94 90 88 88 86 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 79 80 81 83 84 84 84 80 77 75 75 74 72 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -56.1 -56.5 -56.7 -57.4 -57.6 -57.9 -58.0 -57.9 -57.8 -57.9 -57.7 -57.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 41 43 43 43 44 47 46 48 47 47 46 48 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 17 17 16 14 13 12 12 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 101 93 99 94 100 91 99 95 74 64 54 54 49 200 MB DIV -2 -2 -15 0 -10 -9 13 -2 12 -6 -5 7 -8 LAND (KM) 1863 1836 1824 1819 1851 1945 2028 2021 1927 1842 1724 1601 1512 LAT (DEG N) 37.6 37.5 37.2 36.9 36.4 35.7 36.0 37.2 37.9 38.3 38.6 38.8 39.0 LONG(DEG W) 34.1 34.6 35.1 35.5 35.6 35.0 33.3 32.2 31.2 30.3 29.1 27.7 26.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 4 5 5 7 7 5 4 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):332/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 10. 4. -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 34. 36. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 24. 27. 26. 25. 24. 22. 19. 16.