* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CESAR AL041990 08/07/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 41 45 46 49 50 52 54 57 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 41 45 46 49 50 52 54 57 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 16 16 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 16 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 98 117 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 105 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.3 -56.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 42 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 0 0 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -76 -89 -108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 -43 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2234 2283 2332 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.5 27.2 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.6 45.0 44.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):138/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 16. 16. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 17. 20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 15. 16. 19. 20. 22. 24. 27.