* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CESAR AL041990 08/07/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 47 51 54 57 60 61 62 64 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 47 51 54 57 60 61 62 64 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 20 20 17 18 15 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 9 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 -2 0 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 65 86 99 93 69 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 122 122 122 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 107 107 108 109 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.3 -56.6 -56.9 -57.3 -57.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 42 39 38 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 4 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -71 -71 -73 -73 -41 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 -42 -29 1 -11 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2095 2143 2197 2216 2265 2296 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.0 45.3 44.2 43.1 41.5 39.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 12 13 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):138/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 17. 20. 22. 24. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. 31. 32. 34.