* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DIANA AL051990 08/07/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 69 70 75 81 86 91 93 93 93 92 V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 58 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 62 69 63 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 35 37 38 34 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 6 3 3 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 37 54 195 215 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.3 9.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 157 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 144 146 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -54.0 -53.9 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 13 11 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 69 67 69 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 18 14 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -21 -25 -22 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 64 39 75 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 235 175 82 -28 -142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.2 20.2 20.0 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.7 94.7 95.7 96.8 98.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 14. 15. 20. 26. 31. 36. 38. 38. 38. 37.