* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DIANA AL051990 08/07/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 69 70 72 76 82 87 89 89 88 86 V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 60 48 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 62 69 70 50 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 40 39 43 45 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 3 6 10 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 35 170 188 196 191 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 6.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 157 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 143 148 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.7 -53.5 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 16 13 11 13 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 63 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 24 23 22 19 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -20 -22 -12 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 70 59 90 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 290 200 122 -9 -83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.0 20.4 20.6 20.5 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.7 94.6 95.6 97.0 97.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -13. -13. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 14. 15. 17. 22. 27. 32. 34. 34. 33. 31.