* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DIANA AL051990 08/07/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 70 71 78 85 91 97 99 99 99 97 V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 58 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 62 69 65 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 43 43 42 35 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 5 2 10 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -6 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 49 171 196 224 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 146 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.9 -53.2 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 12 11 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 67 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 23 24 21 16 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -27 -24 -19 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 69 86 81 112 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 259 192 75 -32 -146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.7 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.7 94.7 96.0 97.2 98.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 15. 16. 23. 30. 36. 42. 44. 44. 44. 42.