* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EDOUARD AL061990 08/08/90 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 44 48 54 56 54 51 48 43 38 37 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 44 48 54 56 54 51 48 43 38 37 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 38 41 43 45 47 48 48 47 46 46 V (KT) G06R 26 25 24 22 22 23 25 22 21 21 18 21 21 SHEAR (KT) 21 21 26 22 28 19 19 23 26 26 24 18 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 0 1 0 0 -2 -2 -1 0 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 123 113 110 87 80 66 76 76 77 72 71 58 311 SST (C) 24.4 24.3 24.2 23.8 23.4 22.5 22.1 21.9 21.8 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 96 96 97 96 94 88 84 84 79 81 82 84 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 78 79 82 82 81 76 72 72 67 69 70 72 74 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -56.2 -56.6 -56.7 -57.1 -57.5 -57.1 -57.4 -57.6 -58.0 -57.6 -57.0 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 700-500 MB RH 43 45 46 48 49 50 46 45 43 45 45 45 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 17 17 17 17 17 15 13 12 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 126 118 109 98 95 78 73 63 39 30 17 13 15 200 MB DIV 8 -1 1 11 17 -3 -1 -22 -20 -8 -4 -17 -26 LAND (KM) 1934 1933 1968 2003 1919 1771 1710 1605 1574 1583 1602 1695 1790 LAT (DEG N) 36.9 37.0 37.0 37.4 37.9 39.5 40.1 40.3 40.5 40.5 40.4 40.3 39.9 LONG(DEG W) 33.7 33.7 33.2 32.2 31.2 29.7 29.2 28.1 27.7 27.8 28.1 29.2 30.2 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 6 9 10 7 4 4 0 1 2 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):113/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. -1. -0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 10. 7. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 19. 23. 28. 31. 34. 34. 35. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 24. 26. 24. 21. 18. 13. 8. 7.